Economy - published on 07 September 2024
Source: Unioncamere press office
Rome, September 6, 2024 – Over the five-year period 2024-2028, the employment needs of Italian companies and public administrations may differ between 3.4 and 3.9 million, depending on the macroeconomic scenario considered.
Most of the demand will be driven by the replacement needs of workers leaving the labor market (accounting for 78 percent of the need in the positive scenario and 88 percent in the negative one), while the growth of the employment stock between 2024 and 2028 will be between 405 thousand and 832 thousand (Table 1).
The forecasts are mostly affected by the positive effect expected from the use of the funds of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which, in the case of full implementation of the investments, is estimated to activate a total of about 970 thousand employees considering both direct and indirect effects and on the induced industries. The most benefited supply chains are estimated to be: “finance and consulting” (with 23 percent of the overall employment impact of the
NRP), “trade and tourism” (21 percent), “education and culture” (12 percent), “construction and infrastructure” and “other public and private services” (both with 10 percent).
This is what emerges from the July update of the report on “Medium-term (2024-2028) forecasts of employment and professional needs in Italy,” prepared as part of the Excelsior Information System, created by Unioncamere in collaboration with the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy.
Determining more than 18 percent of the entire national requirement of the positive scenario (Table 2) is Lombardy – with an expected requirement of 709 thousand employees – followed by Lazio (391 thousand units, 10.1 percent of the total), Veneto (326 thousand units, 8.4 percent), Emilia-
Romagna (325 thousand units, 8.4%) and Campania (312 thousand units, 8.1%).
It is estimated that the private sectors’ need for immigrant workers over the next five years could reach 640 thousand (Table 3). The need for foreign workers, calculated as a share of the sector’s projected needs, will affect agriculture (35 percent) and industry (28 percent) the most, while at the supply chain level the needs of “fashion” (45.7 percent), “mobility and logistics” (33 percent), “agribusiness” (32.1 percent), “wood and furniture” (29.9 percent) and “construction and infrastructure” (29.4 percent) will be particularly relevant.
In terms of education levels, it is expected that between 37-38 percent of the five-year employment requirement will involve occupations for which tertiary education is required (bachelor’s degree, ITS Academy diploma or AFAM), while 47-48 percent of the workforce will be required to have a technical-vocational secondary education.
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