€-coin stabilizes in July

27 July 2018


Economy - published on 31 July 2018


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Source: E – MAIL ALERT Bank of Italy

In July €-coin remained substantially unchanged (0.49 from 0.48 in June) at levels that are consistent with continued growth in euro-area GDP.

The positive contribution provided by the increase in share prices was offset by the negative effects generated by the weakening in world trade and the decline in the business confidence
outlook.

The €-coin indicator developed by the Bank of Italy provides a summary index of the current economic situation in the euro area. The indicator is an estimate of quarterly GDP growth
shorn of the most erratic components (seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility). €-coin is published monthly by the Bank of Italy and CEPR.

Next €-coin release dates: Friday, 31 August and Friday, 28 September (preliminary).

Source: Bank of Italy and Eurostat.

Note: The €-coin series is based on the real time estimates of the indicator at a given date and hence the series is not revised. On the other hand, the GDP growth rates are
calculated on the basis of Eurostat’s most recently published series and do reflect any changes in the historical data.

€-coin collates data from a large set of macroeconomic time series (industrial production indices, business surveys, demand indicators, stock market indices and more). It extracts the
information that is relevant for tracking underlying GDP trends for the entire area.

The €-coin estimate is timely, anticipating Eurostat’s official release of the area-wide GDP growth figure by several months. It also provides a reasonably close forecast of the quarterly
growth rate net of the more volatile components. The estimate of underlying growth trends by €-coin has two key advantages:

(i) monthly frequency, with release several months ahead of the official euro-area GDP estimate; (ii) immunity to the short-term fluctuations and measurement errors that mark quarterly output
growth; that is, the index figure is an indicator of the euro area’s actual growth momentum.

The following table shows the performance of the €-coin indicator over the last year:

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