Source: Istat press office
In January 2024, a cyclical reduction is estimated for trade with non-EU27 countries for both flows, larger for imports (-8.7%) than for exports (-4.5%).
The monthly contraction in exports was due to lower sales of capital goods (-9.2%) and intermediate goods (-8.3%); on the other hand, sales of energy (+13.2%) and consumer durables (+0.6%) and non-durable goods (+1.4%) increased. On the import side, there were cyclical reductions for all groupings; the largest were for energy (-12.8%) and consumer durables (-11.9%) and non-durables (-9.7%).
In the November 2023-January 2024 quarter, compared to the previous quarter, exports decreased by 2.1%; with the exception of durable consumer goods (+7.4%), the reduction affected all groupings and was most pronounced for energy (-21.8%). Over the same period, imports fell by 7.1%, across the board and more markedly for energy (-14.1%).
On an annual basis, in January 2024, exports contracted by 1.2% (it was -7.0% in December 2023), driven by the reduction in sales of intermediate goods (-14.8%), in particular, and of non-durable consumer goods (-1.4%).imports contracted by 19.4%, to which the reduction in purchases of all groupings contributed, mainly energy (-35.8%) and intermediate goods (-16.6%).
In January2024, the trade balance with non-EU27 countries was positive at +2,889 million (-1,386 million in the same month of2023). The energy deficit (-€4,410 million) is lower than a year earlier (-€7,488 million) and the surplus in non-energy trade increases from €6,102 million in January2023 to €7,299 million in January2024.
In January 2024, there was a sharp year-on-year contraction in exports to China (-46.2%). On the other hand, sales to ASEAN and OPEC countries (for both +26.4%), Japan (+19.9%) and the United States (+14.4%) increased sharply.
With the exception of the United States (+24.5%) and Turkey (+16.2%), imports from all the main non-EU27 partner countries fell year-on-year. The most marked tendential reductions concerned purchases from Russia (-79.6%), ASEAN countries (-27.9%), OPEC countries (-21.8%), China (-21.6%) and MERCOSUR countries (-20.0%).
Comment
The cyclical reduction in exports to non-EU countries, caused by lower sales of intermediate and capital goods, is conditioned by the occasional high-impact transactions (shipbuilding) recorded in December 2023; net of these, a smaller reduction of -1.7% is estimated.On an annual basis, the decline in exports is softening and is mainly due to lower sales of intermediate goods. The trend fall in exports to China is a base effect resulting from the comparison with January 2023, when there was an exceptional increase in exports of pharmaceuticals to that country.
Imports continued to fall on both a monthly and annual basis. The year-on-year decline – almost entirely explained by the reduction in purchases of energy and intermediate goods – remains widespread and geographically dispersed.
The trade balance with non-EU27 countries, at the beginning of 2024, is positive by 2.9 billion (it was -1.4 billion in January 2023).
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Translated by Cecilia Flaccavento
Intern at the Chamber of Commerce of Treviso – Belluno|Dolomites
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