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July, €-coin remains high

Continuing to point to an expansionary phase

Economy - published on 04 August 2021

https://www.trevisobellunosystem.com/tvsys/img/notizie/banca_d_italia.jpg

Source: press office Bank of Italy

• Despite decreasing slightly in July (to 0.88, from 0.96 in June), €-coin continues to point to an expansionary phase in the euro-area economy.

• The slowdown in manufacturing, which was reflected in lower business confidence in the sector, outpaced the gradual recovery in services, connected with the easing of the restrictions adopted to
contain the pandemic.

• The €-coin indicator developed by the Bank of Italy provides a summary index of the current economic situation in the euro area. The indicator is an estimate of quarterly GDP growth shorn of the
most erratic components (seasonal variations, measurement errors and short.

• Next €-coin release dates: Thursday 2 September and Friday 1 October (provisional).

€-coin and euro-area GDP – July 2021

Note: The €-coin series is based on the real time estimates of the indicator at a given date and hence the series is not revised. On the other hand, the GDP growth rates are calculated on the basis
of Eurostat’s most recently published series and do reflect any changes in the historical data.

€-coin is constructed monthly by exploiting a vast set of macroeconomic time series (e.g. industrial production indices, business and households surveys, demand indicators, and stock market
indices) in order to extract the data needed to estimate the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth.

€-coin precedes by several months the official euro-area GDP figure released by Eurostat and gives an early indication of the trend net of any erratic or short-term components.

The following table shows the performance of the €-coin indicator over the last year:

See graphs

For further technical details on €-coin, see ‘New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 1024-1034, available in the Bank of Italy’s series
Temi di Discussione (Working Papers), 631.

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-

discussione/2007/2007-0631/en_tema_631.pdf

http://eurocoin.cepr.org

Starting in January 2021 a new version of the indicator was published, with some revisions relative to the database and estimate sample.

For further details on the revision see:

https://www.bancaditalia.it/media/comunicati/documenti/202101/EuroCoin_

dicembre_2020_ita.pdf

https://eurocoin.cepr.org/node/432

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