Source: press office Presidency of the Chamber of Commerce of Treviso Belluno|Dolomiti
The manufacturing economy in the second quarter 2022
First signs of slowdown for the manufacturing sector
Demand, both from domestic and foreign markets, is slowing down above all.
Production levels, however, remain in positive territory thanks to orders accumulated in previous months and not fulfilled due to supply difficulties.
President Mario Pozza’s comment
The critical scenario is beginning to take clear shape for our manufacturing sector – underlines the President of the Chamber of Commerce of Treviso and Belluno|Dolomiti Mario Pozza –
with a significant slowdown in order intake. In fact, after growing at a sustained pace in the previous quarters, in the period under review orders remained practically stationary for
Treviso, while for Belluno the negative sign on foreign demand appeared. As a result, the order portfolio, which we had seen lengthening also due to the supply difficulties encountered by
companies, now begins to contract: it goes from 76 to 63 days for the Treviso manufacturing sector, from 84 to 67 days for the Belluno area.
In short, the ‘oxygen reserves’ are thinning out. Production is still in positive territory, confirming that our industrial system has been able to catch the rebound of the world economy in
2021. There are sectors – the President continues – such as eyewear and wood-furniture (the latter towing the construction industry) that show interesting differences compared to the average
performance of the sector. There are probably also production returns in Italy that contribute to this overall output resilience. However, I look with concern at how events are evolving: the
economic pace of production is slowing down overall; turnover is growing, but largely as a result of price adjustments that companies are forced to make in order to parry the blows of price rises
in energy and raw materials; orders are slowing down, as already mentioned, and in general entrepreneurs’ sentiment is worsening for the coming months.
For the coming months we no longer have an absolute majority of companies betting on growth. Expectations of growth concern about 1 in 3 entrepreneurs, but the share of companies expecting a
deterioration for the third quarter is now almost the same. The estimates of GDP holding for 2022 are in my opinion illusory because they are the result of the positive legacy of 2021, rather the
almost flat growth forecast for 2023 matters and is worrying.
The new international tensions do not help – comments President Pozza. The diplomatic visit of the third US official to Taiwan calls into question the fragile balance between China
and the United States, with the risk of also having major repercussions on the global market and in particular that of technological devices. I hope that these tensions will soon subside or further
supply difficulties could be added for our companies. Our companies need to operate in an international environment that is as stable as possible. If tensions were to continue, as the conflict
between Russia and Ukraine teaches us, we would all lose out, not just those directly involved.
What’s more, in Italy, a government crisis has opened when it should least have been opened – Pozza harshly criticises. Not only for all that there is to be done: diplomatic
relations, energy diversification and gas price containment, the pandemic that never ceases to torment us, inflation at 1980s levels that erodes people’s purchasing power. Then there is the whole
PNRR game to be managed: several observers looked at the intelligent use of PNRR funds as a way to support domestic demand (and also intra-EU demand) as partial compensation for the uncertainty
that increasingly affects extra-EU demand, with the US in recession and China slowing down. What will happen now? I hope – Pozza concludes – that even under business as usual the
outgoing government can make the most of this potential. And I also hope that the new government that will emerge from the polls will not delay a second in this game, without ever forgetting that
these funds, if misspent, are just bad debt. Which then falls on companies, workers, future generations.
