Economy - published on 15 November 2023
Source: Studies and Statistic Office of the Chamber of Commerce of Treviso Belluno|Dolomites
Forecasts for the fourth quarter are marked by uncertainty regarding the evolution of geo-economic scenarios. But investments continue to be made in digital technologies to support versatility and business intelligence, trying to govern complexity.
Treviso, 14 November 2023.
The comment of President Mario Pozza
The slowdown in the Treviso and Belluno manufacturing industry continued in the third quarter of 2023, as already highlighted in the June survey – commented Mario Pozza, President of the Treviso-Belluno Chamber of Commerce.
We are faced with a negative quarter both in terms of production and turnover and in terms of new orders – the President is not mincing words – However, I would like to point out that from some less cyclical indicators (substantial stability of the order book, forecasts for the fourth quarter that are more marked by uncertainty than pessimism), the picture that emerges can still be attributed to a scenario of ‘normalisation’ of the economic cycle, after two agitated years of post-pandemic restart, of sectors supported by expansive fiscal policies, of anomalous functioning of the value chains also due to war events and energy price increases.
Certainly – adds Pozza – this is an unfinished ‘normalisation’, continually exposed to further disruptive factors (e.g. the conflict between Gaza and Israel), with asymmetric effects between sectors. The sample surveyed gives us a rather clear picture in this regard, highlighting the greater suffering of the sectors linked to consumer goods (on which inflation has an impact), compared to those linked to investment goods which, despite the persistence of high interest rates, are also benefiting from greater international openness, and thus greater diversification of market risk. Despite everything, the industrial machinery sector – explains the President – is showing production and order intake in positive territory on an annual basis, although it too is not escaping a downturn in the economy compared to the previous quarter.
As I was saying, the forecasts for the fourth quarter are marked by uncertainty – Pozza continues – companies do not see ‘all dark’, but they tell me that they have no visibility on the future, the geo-economic scenarios are very complicated, and therefore industrial planning is being put to the whip, which must be able to incorporate ‘plan B or plan C’, with all that this entails.
Perhaps it is precisely because of this situation, in order to face these adverse scenarios – continues Pozza – that manufacturing companies in Veneto have continued to invest in certain technological frontiers related to digitalisation. In fact, the results of a survey, co-designed by the Unioncamere Veneto Study Centre and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, which periodically checks the state of adoption of digital technologies in Veneto manufacturing companies, are very interesting and heartening. The first emblematic data that I want to highlight are the following: in 2017, only 1/3 of the manufacturing companies in Veneto adopted 4.0 technologies, today we have passed to 2/3 of the companies. But there is more: five years ago, only 15% of companies opted for a complex mix of digital technologies. Today, almost 1 in 2 companies adopt complex technology packages. In support of what? Versatile process automation and business intelligence tools: those that allow decisions to be made in uncertainty.
Certainly – concluded the President – this situation of uncertainty on the markets worries us, it does not only concern Italy, I have also witnessed it in conversations and institutional meetings during my missions abroad to Chicago and New York. The invitation I am addressing to companies is to go beyond our European market, which is now emerging as a domestic market, and beyond those already consolidated, such as the United States, which still offer many opportunities, to identify new markets. It may in fact be of strategic commercial importance to consider countries such as Australia, India, Latin America, and China. These are markets with buyers who can spend. Made in Italy, in fact, addresses a high-end target, and it is precisely this target that we must intercept. Each market – highlights President Pozza – must be approached with absolute preparation and knowledge in order to reduce business risk. The Chamber system is there with Venicepromex and with the Italian Chambers of Commerce abroad to accompany Made in Italy in the world.
The international and national picture
The results to the third quarter of 2023 of the Treviso and Belluno manufacturing survey (analysed below in the report), are part of a context of substantial slowdown in the world economy, but with heterogeneous dynamics at a territorial level, as confirmed by the GDP trends, tending towards moderate growth at a global level, with a slight increase for the Eurozone. The latest IMF forecasts in the October Outlook also speak of low global growth: +3% for 2023 and +2.9% for 2024 (with a slight downward revision of -0.1 p.p. compared to the July forecast). Just an improvement in the estimates for the US, offset by a worsening in the expected growth estimates for China. For Germany, the GDP decrease will be -0.5% for 2023, but should then turn into a slight increase of +0.9% for 2024. At +0.7%, the IMF estimated growth for Italy in 2023, correcting downwards by -0.4 percentage points the estimates released in July.
According to Congiunturaref analysts, this slowdown is still to be traced back to a scenario of normalisation of international value chains, after the shocks of the past years. The dynamics are well known: if, on the one hand, the tensions on commodity prices have eased, at the same time inflation has fallen at a slower rate than expected by the central banks: this has led to the gradual rise in interest rates, which has in fact hit (all too hard) the target of cooling demand, resulting in weak world trade and signs of tightening conditions for access to credit.
At a territorial level, the dynamics of the main economies can be summarised as follows:
Read the entire report attached (…)
