In a fragile international economic context marked by ongoing shocks, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tighter trade conditions, rising energy and logistics costs, and a slowdown in global trade, regional manufacturing output in the first quarter of 2026 remained positive, posting a year-over-year increase of 3.4%, with growth observed across all manufacturing sectors.
Production capacity, as measured by the degree of plant utilization, stands at 70%, highlighting a precautionary approach by companies, which are concentrating production in intermittent cycles and building up inventory to avoid disruptions in the supply of critical components and raw materials.
Demand trends are also positive, with orders rising both in the domestic market (+2.2%) and the foreign market (+3.1%), highlighting the regional manufacturing sector’s ability to maintain strong international competitiveness.
Business owners’ expectations for the April–June period are cautious and point to a phase of growth that remains fragile and heavily influenced by uncertainty in the international economic environment, which could intensify in the coming months, progressively affecting energy and raw material costs, supply chain dynamics, and, more generally, confidence levels.
These are the key findings of VenetoCongiuntura, the economic analysis of the manufacturing sector conducted by Unioncamere del Veneto on a sample of approximately 2,200 companies with at least 10 employees, representing a total workforce of over 95,000.
The data we are presenting today on the performance of the regional production system- a reliable, up-to-date, and accurate assessment because it is based on a broad, representative, and diverse sample of companies—is intended to be a concrete contribution useful to all stakeholders in the region – comments Valentina Montesarchio, Secretary General of Unioncamere del Veneto – In an international context showing signs of a slowdown and growing uncertainty, the Veneto production system faces conflicting dynamics: on the one hand, elements of resilience remain, supported by businesses’ ability to adapt, innovation, and a strong openness to international markets; on the other hand, signs of greater caution are emerging, linked to the uncertainty of the environment and the weakening of growth prospects. It therefore becomes even more important to have timely and reliable analytical tools capable of identifying not only the critical issues but also the opportunities that may arise in such a complex phase, and of supporting effective decision-making.
The data for the first quarter of 2026 confirm the resilience of the business community in Venice and Rovigo – emphasizes Emanuela Fattorel, Secretary General of the Venice-Rovigo Chamber of Commerce – Despite complex global challenges, our manufacturing sector is showing a positive rebound compared to the negative trends of the first quarter of 2025, keeping pace with national growth.
On the labor market front as well, there is a positive balance between hires and layoffs, and tourist arrivals continue to grow. However, as an institution close to entrepreneurs, we do not turn a blind eye to critical issues. Our business landscape is undergoing a period of profound transformation: while we see consolidation among corporations and larger companies, we are witnessing a decline in micro-enterprises and artisanal businesses, which have always been the beating heart of our regions. Furthermore, the international landscape calls for great caution. 2025 ended with a decline in our local exports, and now geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving up operating and energy costs. Manufacturing companies are looking ahead to the coming months with a forecast that remains optimistic, but as the Chamber of Commerce, we know that this is not enough. Il nostro massimo impegno sarà rivolto ad affiancare soprattutto le micro e piccole imprese, fornendo loro formazione e consulenza necessari per rafforzare l’innovazione e la presenza sui mercati esteri, che si confermano una valvola di sfogo essenziale per i nostri prodotti di eccellenza.
The International and Domestic Context
The global economy continues to face one exogenous shock after another. After a 2025 dominated by the issue of U.S. tariffs, the first part of this year has seen the emergence of the unprecedented crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass daily (20% of global oil consumption and over a quarter of crude oil traded by sea). Supply constraints have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, a 60% increase from pre-crisis levels (around $65), reaching an average Brent price of $120.4 in April. The evolution of the conflict has further highlighted the strategic centrality of the strait, a production and commercial transit hub that is difficult to replace in the short term for a wide range of non-energy goods, notably industrial rare gases, primary metals, and chemical fertilizers.
In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF has revised its global growth forecast downward to 3.1% for 2026.
Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) agree that the economic outlook is heavily influenced by the duration of this new crisis in the Middle East, as well as by the intensity and scope of inflation resulting from rising energy and other commodity prices.
In this highly unstable global context, Prometeia’s estimates confirm a very weak growth outlook for Italy, at approximately +0.4% in 2026, with consumption and investment slowing. For the Veneto region, the latest estimates for the current year paint an updated picture confirming GDP growth of around +0.4% for 2026, followed by a slight increase to +0.6% in 2027, with similar levels in the following two years. The revision reinforces the idea of a slightly positive but inherently slow trend.
Veneto’s Manufacturing Sector
The economic situation in Veneto for the first quarter of 2026 shows generally positive trends, as the main economic indicators have not yet been affected by the geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which erupted in late February.
Between January and March, seasonally adjusted industrial production recorded a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of +0.9%, while the year-on-year increase stood at +3.4%. The distribution of responses reflects the moderately favorable climate: 49% of companies reported an increase in production compared to last year, 15% reported stability, and 36% reported a decrease.
The sector-by-sector analysis shows growth across all manufacturing sectors, with the exception of the wood and furniture sector, which recorded a slight decline of -0.3%.
The food, beverage, and tobacco sectors, as well as the marble, glass, and ceramics sectors, are growing significantly, both with an increase of +5.3%. The machinery and mechanical equipment sector (+4.3%), the electrical and electronic equipment sector (+4.1%), and the transportation equipment sector (+4.0%) are also particularly dynamic.
Capacity utilization stands at over 70%. The best performance is seen in the transportation equipment sector, at around 81%, and in metals and metal products, at 73%; conversely, the machinery and mechanical equipment sector shows utilization stuck at 65%.
The trend in demand also appears positive. Orders are growing both in the domestic market (+2.2%) and in foreign markets (+3.1%). In particular, on the foreign front, the performance of textiles and apparel (+9%), rubber and plastics (+8.8%), and transportation equipment (+6.2%) stands out.
Positivo appare anche l’andamento della domanda. Gli ordinativi crescono sia sul mercato interno (+2,2%) sia su quello estero (+3,1%). In particolare, sul fronte estero spiccano le performance del tessile e abbigliamento (+9%), della gomma e plastica (+8,8%) e dei mezzi di trasporto (+6,2%).
Revenue was also positive, rising by 2.8%.
Production expectations have worsened compared to those at the start of 2025: 44% expect an increase, down from 47% the previous year, while forecasts of a decrease have risen to 19%.
A cautious attitude prevails regarding domestic and foreign orders, with a balance between expectations of an increase and those of stability, with shares for both options hovering around 40%.
Regarding revenue, the share of companies expecting an increase in the coming months rises to 47%, compared to 20% expecting a decrease and 34% anticipating no change.
Manufacturing Trends in the Venice and Rovigo Areas
In the Metropolitan City of Venice, for the first quarter of 2026, manufacturing firms (a sample of 236 firms employing 7,471 workers) showed trends in line with the regional average in terms of seasonally adjusted quarterly changes and better than the regional average in terms of year-over-year changes. Industrial production, in fact, recorded seasonally adjusted growth of 0.6% compared to the previous quarter and a 5% rebound compared to the first quarter of 2025, a period in which a slowdown in industrial activity had been observed. Capacity utilization fell slightly to 69% (from 70% in the previous quarter). Revenue showed more modest annual growth (+2.9%). On the order front, the recovery continued for both foreign demand (+3.9%) and domestic demand (+3.7%), likely influenced by precautionary order advances.
Expectations for the next three months are better than the regional average but more cautious than in the first quarter of 2025: 48% of business owners expect an increase in production, while 39% expect it to remain stable, with a positive balance of 35 percentage points between optimists and pessimists. The outlook for revenue is better, with 52% of entrepreneurs expecting an increase and a balance of 37 percentage points; the outlook is slightly worse for foreign orders (balance of 34 percentage points) and especially for domestic orders (balance of 31 percentage points).
For manufacturing firms in the province of Rovigo, the small sample size (73 firms representing 2,584 employees) tends to amplify the results, which nevertheless show trends that are better than the regional average. Production shows a seasonally adjusted monthly increase of 1.1% and a year-over-year increase of 5.6%, with capacity utilization standing at 73%. Turnover also shows strong momentum, recording a year-over-year growth of 4%. As for orders, positive trends are evident, with patterns opposite to the regional average: for companies in Rovigo, the domestic market is recovering the most (+5%), while the foreign market is expected to grow by +2.4%. The future outlook for Rovigo-based entrepreneurs is better than the regional average, with over 50% of forecasts predicting growth across all indicators.
Focus on Internationalization
The focus on internationalization presented by Sebastiano Cattaruzzo, a researcher at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, analyzed recent changes in Veneto’s exports within a context marked by growing volatility, geopolitical shocks, logistical constraints, and increasingly stringent regulatory requirements.
The key point is that exporting today no longer means simply selling abroad, but managing heterogeneous markets, complex standards, and operational risks – Cattaruzzo emphasized – and from this perspective, the export function becomes a strategic lever requiring integrated organizational, technological, and managerial capabilities.
The presentation proposes a tool to measure not only the breadth of the export portfolio but also the quality and complexity of the markets served. Alongside this, it introduces the concept of “proximity,” useful for understanding how much two markets require similar competencies and for building more gradual paths to internationalization. The goal is to help companies distinguish between simple geographic expansion and real competitive upgrading. Market diversification is interpreted as a factor of resilience, especially when it is consistent with the firm’s technological and organizational capabilities. The managerial message is that scalable internationalization requires planning, targeted investments, and discipline in execution.
In short, exporting becomes a process of capability building, in which the choice of markets must align with the company’s ability to learn, adapt, and compete.
Tourism Focus: “2026, the Summer Ahead”
The summer tourism season in Italy will be influenced by several factors: geopolitical uncertainty, which to date seems to have charted new courses but has not halted international travel; the economic context and concerns regarding rising inflation affecting various regions worldwide; the increase in airfare costs and the jet fuel crisis, which so far has generated more alarm than actual impact on air travel demand; and renewed tensions surrounding health and safety risks associated with cruises. These factors influence travelers’ perceptions and heighten the need for safety, to the extent that distant, risky, or expensive destinations are being set aside, while Italy and European capitals are becoming the preferred destinations. Last-minute bookings and proximity will prevail this summer, and for the Veneto region, this means not only Italy but also a significant portion of the German-speaking market.
The Federated Regional Tourism Observatory, promoted by the Veneto Region and Unioncamere del Veneto and now comprising a network of 47 local partners, represents one of the strategic tools through which the Veneto Region is developing a true data-driven culture applied to tourism, moving beyond an approach limited solely to traditional indicators of arrivals and overnight stays – notes Valentina Montesarchio, Secretary General of Unioncamere del Veneto, speaking on behalf of the the Federated Regional Tourism Observatory – Through a dynamic and interoperable platform, the OTRF provides destinations and businesses with a comprehensive set of datasets and indicators that include online reputation and sentiment, tourism spending, real-time and forecast occupancy rates, sales channels, customer journey, and market analysis.
On the international tourism front, according to the sector’s leading associations, there has been no significant drop in bookings from abroad, particularly from non-European markets, confirming that the propensity to travel and the outlook for the future are not marked by pessimism. The international situation, however, could have serious repercussions on outbound tourism from Italy. The war in the Gulf has brought the fear factor back to the forefront of travelers’ decisions: distant, risky, or expensive destinations are being set aside.
The fact that Italy is at the center of Italians’ travel plans is confirmed by a survey conducted by the Piepoli Institute, according to which 70% of respondents intend to take a trip in the next four months. 85% of Italians are planning vacations in Italy and Europe. Of these, 56% plan to stay within Italy’s borders, followed by Europe (29%) and non-EU countries (9%). This desire must contend with a climate of tension and significant global uncertainty that is profoundly influencing travelers’ choices. More than half of Italians (54%) have changed their minds or are uncertain about what to do due to the complex and unstable global situation. In particular, 23% have opted for destinations considered safer, and 21% have chosen to stay within national borders, foregoing travel abroad. Thus, Italian and European demand—which represents the domestic market for the Veneto region—appears to remain steadfast in its search for reassurance, favoring proximity and perhaps personal transportation (which also means being able to return home quickly).
