Treviso, May 25, 2026 – A statement by President Mario Pozza
The results of the Unioncamere del Veneto survey for the first quarter of 2026 reflect the complex geopolitical dynamics and the decisions made by businesses in response to these scenarios – commented Mario Pozza, President of the Treviso-Belluno|Dolomiti Chamber of Commerce.
For Treviso, production increased by +3.2% compared to the first quarter of 2025. While this figure is positive in itself, it should be interpreted with due caution, as it is presumably also influenced by the need for businesses to build up precautionary stockpiles to avoid potential supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
For Belluno – Pozza continues – production is down slightly (-1.3%). The decline particularly affects small subcontractors, who are suffering from supply chain reorganizations currently affecting the eyewear district. In contrast, the performance of leaders in the eyewear and refrigeration sectors is positive.
In both Treviso and Belluno, orders from abroad are increasing (by +6.1% in Treviso and +7.3% in Belluno), an effect resulting, on the one hand, from the accumulation of inventories, as already mentioned, but we also believe from the ability of our companies to diversify their export markets in response to U.S. tariffs.
Domestic demand, however, remains weak, held back by uncertainty surrounding household consumption: it stands at +1.5% in Treviso and drops to -3.7% in Belluno.
Looking at trends in the main sectors, production is growing in the food and beverage industry. For the fashion sector and the transportation and components supply chain, production is showing positive growth, but it should be noted that the comparison is with a period last year that was still quite challenging. The machinery industry is also holding steady, while signs of difficulty persist in the wood and furniture sector.
As I said at the beginning – continues the President – these results tell us that our companies are once again demonstrating flexibility and the ability, in the immediate term, to adapt to the new geo-economic landscape by diversifying markets and preventing potential supply issues.
The main unknown remains the impact on consumer prices of rising energy and other commodity prices. Istat has already confirmed that the inflation rate rose to 2.7% in April, an increase of one percentage point from the previous month. If a price war were to break out among various operators, especially in Italy and Europe, people’s purchasing power would be further eroded, with a dampening effect on demand.
Finally, the time factor will be crucial: as the European Central Bank has also highlighted, everything will depend on how long the conflict in the Middle East lasts.
The International and National Landscape
The global economy continues to face one exogenous shock after another. After a 2025 dominated by the issue of U.S. tariffs, the unprecedented crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has emerged in this first part of the year. As is well known, on April 12, 2026, the Trump administration, following the failure of negotiations with Iran, imposed a naval blockade on a strait just 33 kilometers wide, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass daily (corresponding to 20% of global oil consumption and over a quarter of the crude oil traded by sea).
Supply constraints have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, representing a 60% increase from pre-crisis levels (around $65). In April 2026, the average price of Brent reached $120.4[1].
The evolution of the conflict has further highlighted the strategic importance of the strait: a production and commercial transit hub that is difficult to replace in the short term for a wide range of non-energy goods. Among these are industrial rare gases, primary metals, and chemical fertilizers, in particular:
- With approximately 30% of global production concentrated in Qatar, helium is an irreplaceable chemical input for the manufacturing processes of the latest-generation microchips. The entities most vulnerable to potential bottlenecks are the Asian giants of microelectronics, which rely on Qatari supplies for about 65% of their needs.
- The Persian Gulf region stands as one of the world’s most significant metallurgical and steel hubs, generating approximately 9% of global primary aluminum production. Of this share, the vast majority (about 80%) is absorbed by the European Union, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, and, in particular, by their automotive and aerospace supply chains.
- The Gulf region remains the world’s leading hub for nitrogen fertilizers. A significant portion of the international market passes through this region, accounting for 30–35% of global urea exports and 20–30% of ammonia exports.
Geopolitical tensions and corporate strategies, particularly in the Eurozone
In the Eurozone, fears of a new surge in inflation and further disruptions to supply chains have prompted many companies to take precautionary measures by building up safety stock. According to the monthly survey by S&P Global Market Intelligence, this wave of preemptive purchasing has driven demand and production, reflected in the significant jump in the region’s manufacturing PMI index, which rose from 51.6 in March to 52.2 in April.
However, geopolitical instability is reshaping corporate strategies in several ways:
- Shortening supply chains. Companies are considering shortening their production chains, favoring geographic proximity to reduce the vulnerability of supply chains. It remains to be seen, as during the Covid era, what room for maneuver they have in terms of costs and available production capacity.
- Diversification of export markets in response to tariffs. According to initial estimates of export flows, the diversification index of companies across markets is increasing as a reaction to U.S. protectionism. This also applies to companies that do not directly export to the U.S. but have suffered indirect effects from the tariffs (fewer orders, price increases).
Economic Outlook
Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) agree that the economic outlook is heavily influenced by the duration of this new crisis in the Middle East, as well as by the intensity and scope of inflation resulting from rising energy and other commodity prices.
In its latest report released in April, the IMF revised downward its estimates for global economic growth, forecasting a slight slowdown for 2026 (+3.1%, down from +3.4% in 2025). However, the new shock is affecting different economies in varying degrees.
For the United States, GDP growth is estimated at +2.3% for 2026. Trade policies were expected to have a more negative impact on the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, according to Ref Ricerche[2], the gradual introduction of tariffs, their adjustment, and their partial absorption into U.S. importers’ profit margins limited the ultimate impact on consumer prices. The year 2025 was also marked by a sharp acceleration in investments related to artificial intelligence and the upgrading of energy infrastructure to support the increased demand from data centers. The benefits then extended to the entire IT supply chain and fueled a structural surge in labor productivity, with positive effects on per capita income in the short term. But all of this took place within a fragile balance and a high level of debt. The U.S. cannot afford a global economic stalemate—one it caused itself with the Hormuz crisis—because such a stalemate could nullify the financial returns expected from these substantial investments.
Growth above the global average, but with different trajectories, characterizes the major Asian economies instead.
For China, the expected GDP growth is +4.4%, but this figure should also be interpreted with caution. Beijing is feeling the effects of demographic slowdown and a prolonged real estate crisis. Even today, despite Trump’s intentions, China’s trade balance is heavily skewed toward exports, which offset the weakness of domestic consumption. With drastic shifts toward other Asian and European countries. Because even Beijing cannot afford a global economic stalemate, lest it face overproduction. On the energy front, it can be said that China appears better prepared than other Asian countries to cope with the effects of the Middle East conflict, thanks to its accumulated crude oil reserves and the rapid transition underway toward renewable energy. But its dependence on international demand remains high.
India, now the world’s sixth-largest economy, remains among the most dynamic (+6.5% by 2026), benefiting from structural reforms and a strategy to reposition supply chains aimed at reducing dependence on China (“China Plus One strategy”). It is attracting investments that were previously directed mainly toward Beijing. The Indian economy, however, is among the nations most exposed to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, given that nearly half of its crude oil and basic raw material imports come from that region.
Within the eurozone, Germany’s expansionary fiscal policy is not yielding results, as growth for the current year is projected at +0.8%. At the same time, the manufacturing sector is suffering from a loss of international competitiveness (particularly vis-à-vis China). Furthermore, the German economy is among the most exposed to rising energy prices, relying on key sectors such as chemicals, automotive, metallurgy, and machinery manufacturing—all energy-intensive industries.
In a highly unstable global context, Italy finds itself having to defend an expected growth rate of +0.5% without the shield of investments from the PNRR, which is nearing completion, and amid a new surge in inflation. Due to tensions in the Middle East, inflation is rising again: in April, the NIC consumer price index accelerated, reaching +2.7% year-over-year (up from +1.7% in March). This jump is almost entirely attributable to renewed pressure on energy and food costs, which have wiped out the benefits of the previous phase of disinflation. As a result of these price hikes, households will see their purchasing power eroded, and manufacturing firms will suffer a loss of competitiveness due to higher production costs compared to non-European competitors.
It is within this context that the results of the first quarter of 2026 from the business survey of a sample of 2,215 manufacturing firms in the Veneto region with at least 10 employees should be interpreted.
Trends in Veneto’s Manufacturing Sector by Industry
In the first quarter of 2026, regional manufacturing output showed positive growth, rising by 3.4% year-over-year. However, despite this increase in physical production volumes, there was a slight slowdown in production capacity, as measured by the capacity utilization rate, which fell from 72.2% in the previous quarter to the current 70.2%. One possible reason for the divergent trends between production and capacity utilization could be attributed to the precautionary measures adopted by companies in response to the crisis in the Middle East and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The need to avoid bottlenecks and disruptions in the supply of critical components and raw materials has prompted companies to concentrate production in intermittent cycles and to build up inventories in warehouses.
Total revenue grew year-over-year, but at a slower pace than production, coming in at +2.8% (and showing a slight decline quarter-over-quarter). The growth gap between total revenue and production could indicate not only that companies are building up precautionary inventories, but also that they are cutting prices to maintain or expand market share.
This strategy also appears to be having a positive impact on new foreign orders, which in the first quarter recorded a year-over-year increase of +3.1% (and +4.1% quarter-over-quarter).
Domestic demand is weaker: the year-over-year change is +2.2% (and +1.3% quarter-over-quarter). The domestic market continues to be affected by the weak purchasing power of Italian households and caution in corporate investment decisions.
This persistent weakness in demand and the partly temporary nature of the export component are reflected in the decrease in the number of production days guaranteed by the order backlog. In Veneto, the guaranteed production horizon fell to 52.2 days (compared to 58.4 days in the previous quarter).
Economic performance in the first quarter of 2026 varies significantly depending on the structural characteristics of the various industrial sectors and their positioning within international value chains.
For the eyewear sector, historically concentrated in the Belluno area but with branches also in the province of Treviso, annual production remained largely stable (+0.8%), while revenue declined by -2.3%. The sector, however, is operating at two speeds. On the one hand, leading companies, engaged in redesigning their global value chains, are seeing positive trends for most indicators. On the other hand, small subcontracting firms are suffering the effects of this reorganization, recording predominantly negative performance.
The Fashion Sector (textiles, apparel, and footwear) shows positive momentum in production (+3.2%), driven by a strong rebound in foreign orders (+9.0%). It should be noted, however, that this rebound is influenced by the comparison with last year, which was still characterized by a negative trend. Overall revenue is struggling to grow, rising by a meager +0.5%.
In the Food and Beverage sector, production grew by +5.3% year-on-year, driven by resilient domestic orders (+5.0%), while foreign order intake felt the impact of US tariffs, slowing to a +1.6% increase. Turnover grew, though with squeezed margins, stopping at a +3.3% increase.
Machinery and Mechanical Equipment production showed a positive year-on-year variation of +4.3%, with total turnover up by +5.6%. However, the sector was affected by a slowdown in domestic demand (-1.4%) and subdued foreign demand (+2.6%).
For Transport Equipment, both production and turnover grew by an average of +4.0%, supported by positive order intake from both the domestic and foreign markets. It should be noted, however, that the comparison is once again with a period of severe contraction for the sector.
Signs of difficulty persist for the Wood and Furniture sector, which suffered a -0.3% year-on-year drop in production, despite a +1.8% recovery in turnover.
The forecasts of Venetian entrepreneurs for the second quarter of 2026 are characterized by a wait-and-see approach regarding demand, pending developments in the international geopolitical landscape. For both domestic and foreign order intake, there is a balance between expectations of growth and stability, with shares for both options hovering around 40%.
Forecasts for production and turnover lean more toward cautious optimism. Expectations of growth represent the relative majority, with a share of around 45%. However, a significant wait-and-see attitude remains, with over a third of respondents predicting stable levels for the spring and early summer months.
Manufacturing in Treviso and Belluno
The indicators for manufacturing in Treviso moved similarly to regional ones, reflecting the same underlying drivers. Production increased by +3.2% year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate slipped from 72.8% in the previous quarter to the current 70.7%. Total turnover grew by +2.3% year-on-year—disproportionately less, as can be seen, compared to production.
Therefore, this slight divergence between production and sales dynamics resurfaced in Treviso as well. On one hand, this is attributable to the precautionary behavior adopted by businesses in response to the Hormuz crisis (stockpiling to avoid supply disruptions); on the other hand, it is linked to the use of price levers to facilitate market diversification strategies in response to US tariffs.
Order intake showed differing trends between the foreign and domestic components. Foreign demand proved resilient, registering a +6.1% year-on-year increase. However, in this case too, it is more plausible to assume an anticipation of demand, given that the order backlog did not lengthen; rather, it fell from 59 to 53 days of guaranteed production. The domestic market remained weak, unfortunately now a constant, with order growth at +1.5% year-on-year.
In their forecasts for the second quarter of 2026, Treviso entrepreneurs expressed views similar to regional ones. For production and turnover, positive outlooks outnumbered negative ones. For domestic and foreign demand, however, the relative majority of respondents (over 43%) leaned toward stability (i.e., a wait-and-see approach).
These are the results of the survey for the first quarter of 2026, based on a sample of 472 manufacturing companies in Treviso with at least 10 employees, representing a total of 19,191 workers.
Manufacturing in Belluno suffered from a small sample size (82 companies representing 4,421 employees) which, as noted in previous surveys, tends to amplify results.
That being said, the provincial territory showed different dynamics from the regional average. The results combined the contrasting trends of major local production chains: eyewear and the industrial refrigeration sector.
In the first quarter of 2026, production recorded a slight year-on-year decrease of -1.3%, coupled with a minor dip in the capacity utilization rate (from 71.4% in the previous quarter to the current 68.0%). The primary drag was the weakness of the domestic market, with domestic order intake down by -3.7%. This decline particularly affected small subcontracting manufacturers, who are more exposed to the supply chain reorganizations currently impacting the eyewear industry.
Conversely, the performance of large global leaders in eyewear and the industrial refrigeration sector (“cold chain”) showed the opposite trend. Thanks to their strong international presence, high added value, and the introduction of advanced digital technologies, these major industrial players bolstered foreign demand, with overall foreign orders growing by +7.3% year-on-year.
Driven by large industrial groups, Belluno bucked the trend regarding the order backlog. The days of guaranteed production increased, rising to 57.7 days compared to 54.2 days in the previous quarter.
Forecasts by Belluno entrepreneurs for the second quarter of 2026 show a prevalence of growth expectations over declines, except for domestic demand, where the share of optimists equals those expecting stability (around 36%-37%).
Prepared by the Research and Statistics Office of the Chamber of Commerce of Treviso – Belluno
Methodological note
The Veneto Congiuntura survey for the first quarter of 2026, conducted by Unioncamere del Veneto, is based on 2,215 companies in Veneto with at least 10 employees (totaling 95,313 employees), including 472 companies in the province of Treviso (totaling 19,191 employees) and 82 companies in the province of Belluno with at least 10 employees (totaling 4,421 employees).
[1] Congiunturaref. n. 7/2026
[2] n. 7/2026
