Same trends for Treviso (-3.0%, almost 250 million less, about half of which is due to lost sales to the German market). In Belluno, the decline is -6.4%.
Treviso, September 23, 2024
President Mario Pozza’s comment.
The weakness of international demand is also reflected in the trade interchange of our provinces – comments Mario Pozza, President of the Chamber of Commerce of Treviso and Belluno|Dolomiti. – In the first six months of 2024, Treviso’s exports fell by -3.0%, in line with the result for the Veneto region, which suffered a -3.5% drop. For Belluno, the drop is -6.4%.
Weighed down above all by the crisis in the German market, which for Treviso means a -10.5% reduction in exports to this market: in euros we are talking about lower sales compared to last year of more than 125 million (mainly footwear, metal carpentry, furniture, textiles and clothing and automotive components).
For Belluno, the -6.4 percent drop is related to a decrease in exports of eyewear to the U.S. and French markets (which may also depend on seasonality or reorganization of supply chain flows); but sales of machinery, electronics/medical/measurement products and textiles/clothing also drop.
Doing well are beverages and household appliances in both provinces and food in Treviso.
A negative export dynamic had already been observed in the first quarter – reflects Pozza – and it is very likely that the second quarter will also be part of the oft-referenced process of normalization of the business cycle and prices after the post-pandemic shocks. But the main element of concern – Pozza continues – arises from reading these data in light of what is happening in the second half of the year. The expected signs of restart are still slow to appear, the export downturn affects all the major exporting regions of Italy (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, as well as Veneto) with signs of criticality to be found in several sectors: the fashion system, but also metalmechanics, where the latest monitoring shows a persistent weakness in order collection.
The crisis in the German market weighs heavily, as we were saying, but signs of slowdown are also being felt in other of our economic partners, such as France for example. In these two countries, S&P Global’s September Manufacturing PMI index itself does not show any positive turnaround. So there is an important picture of deterioration that cannot be underestimated. Draghi is absolutely right – concludes President – to urge the European Union to adopt more effective policies to support demand. We need to return to growth.
Diversification in markets mitigates damage, but not enough. Italian exports remain only slightly positive in non-EU markets (+0.8%). Veneto does not do as well, as extra-EU sales drop by -3.5 percent. Here, then, is the need for more levers: to return to growth in the old continent, positioning ourselves in the valuable market segments, and at the same time to strengthen those accompanying measures that allow our companies and supply chains to engage even the most dynamic non-EU markets – concludes Pozza also in his role as President of Assocamerestero.
The national overview
Istat released data on national, regional and provincial foreign trade to the first six months of the year 2024. Compared with January-June 2023, the value of domestic exports falls by -1.1.
The analysis by destination markets confirms the weakness of the EU area: by -2.8 percent is the change for the period January-June 2024 on January-June 2023, affected mainly by the reduction of sales to the German (-6.7 percent) and French (-3.2 percent) markets. On the other hand, with a slight positive sign is the value of sales to the non-EU27 area (+0.8%), benefiting in particular from the good performance to the United States (+3.8%).
Looking at the sectors, the decline concerns in particular metallurgical products, means of transport and components, footwear and tanning, yarns and textiles, and metal carpentry; also slightly down are sales of machinery and chemical and pharmaceutical products. In contrast, exports of food and beverages held up, indeed increased.
The national figure of -1.1 percent averages heterogeneous territorial dynamics. Exports fall for the main exporting regions in northern Italy: Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto (machinery, textiles and apparel and metallurgical products the main items most in decline) and Piedmont, with lower sales particularly of motor vehicles. Also making a negative contribution to national exports are Basilicata (again for lower exports of motor vehicles) and Marche, for lower sales of pharmaceuticals to China. On the opposite side, exports grow especially for Tuscany (+8.7 percent) and Latium (+6.7 percent): both regions share a strong increase in sales of pharmaceutical, medicinal chemical and botanical items.
A decline is also seen on the import side: in the January-June 2024 period, national imports are down by -7.4 percent on a trend basis. About half of the decline is driven, it should be said, by the drop in the prices of oil and natural gas included in the item “products of mines and quarries.” For this commodity item, imports fall from nearly 37 billion in the first six months of 2023 to the current 25.7 billion (-30.4 percent). Purchases of machinery, metallurgical products, electronics/medical and measuring equipment (excluding eyeglasses), electrical components, and textiles and apparel also fall.
The regional overview
In the first half of 2024, Veneto exports fell in values by -3.5%. Last year, in the same period, trend growth of +2.8% was noted.
Regional exports decrease year-on-year in both the EU and non-EU27. For the EU, the reduction in sales to Germany weighs most heavily: the decline is -8.8 percent, a change that corresponds to lower sales of more than 524 million euros. Mainly down are exports of machinery, metallurgical products, metal carpentry, textile-clothing products and transport equipment/components. For the non-EU27 area, it is especially exports to the United States that are down: the change is -5.6 percent (-214 million euros, mainly eyewear and metallurgical products). Also of note is the decline to Austria (-10.5 percent) in the EU area and to Russia (-14.4 percent) for the non-EU27 area. On a positive counter-trend are Romania (+5.1%), Turkey (+9.9%) and the United Arab Emirates (+10.2%).
Analysis by sector shows a decline extended to almost all the main regional commodity items. The decline is higher than the regional average of -3.5 percent, especially for transport equipment and components (-14.4 percent), metallurgical products (-14.0 percent), footwear (-13.6 percent), metal carpentry (-6.8 percent) and textiles and clothing (-5.5 percent). A slight decline in sales is also observed for machinery (-2.7 percent) and eyewear (-1.0 percent). Bucking the positive trend are exports of beverages, whose foreign sales increase by +5.8 percent, food and tobacco (+2.9 percent) and jewelry (+14.5 percent).
In the first six months of 2024, Veneto’s imports fell in value by -7.7 percent. As observed for the national figure, this decline is strongly affected by the drop in prices for natural gas included in the item “products of mineral extraction from quarries and mines”: for this commodity item, the value of purchases falls from 2.4 billion in the first half of 2023 to almost 1.5 billion in the six months under review (-38.7%) against a -4.1% drop in imports in quantity. Purchases of metallurgical products, machinery, textiles and clothing, electrical components and footwear are also down.
